Election Predictions

by Michael Quinn Sullivan

As a journalist and political observer, I get variations of this question a lot during the final days of an election: So, who’s going to win? What’s going to happen? It’s predicated on the premise that I have access to some inside knowledge of what will be decided. So today I will share what’s going to happen and who will win.

But first, a pop quiz. No cheating. Who was elected president in 1820? If the answer didn’t spring immediately to mind, then this Reflection might be for you. If the answer did, then it’s especially for you.

Let me be clear. A lot of polling data comes across my desk, much of it from candidates and their campaigns. So, yes, I am privy to a wider variety of data that doesn’t necessarily make it onto our or anyone else’s news pages. Lest you think that makes me more informed, the fact is I spend most election seasons drowning in a sea of conflicting data.

For example, I not long ago received two messages from one campaign sent within minutes of each other. The first, sent to my work email, told me the candidate’s polling had him “significantly” in the lead, so our political coverage obviously needed to reflect that the candidate was a shoo-in. No one should bother talking about the other guy.

The second missive from the same campaign, sent to a personal address, had a decidedly different tone. This message said the candidate was in a fierce fight, with the race tied up “within the margin of error,” and so therefore a special contribution was critical to move ahead.

Same campaign, different messages.

As Mark Twain put it, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” A variation of that third kind would include political emails about polling statistics.

The fact is that the day after the election will be substantively similar to the day before. Indeed, in the most important aspect, it will be precisely the same: God reigns supreme.

As cries of woe and doom reach a feverish pitch ahead of Tuesday’s election, we must make these three words ring louder in our ears: God reigns supreme.

Put down Facebook and pick up the Good Book. In the story of Daniel, a troubled Nebuchadnezzar reminds us that “the Most High rules the kingdom of men and gives it to whom he will.” Or in Psalms 47:8, where we find, “God reigns over the nations; God is seated on his holy throne.”

In our arrogance and hubris, we deceive ourselves into thinking God is on the ballot, that an election somehow dethrones Him.

In our fear, we act as though our very souls hang in the balance as the ballots are counted.

Here’s what Jesus said in Matthew 10:28: “And do not fear those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. Rather fear him who can destroy both soul and body in hell. Are not two sparrows sold for a penny? And not one of them will fall to the ground apart from your Father. But even the hairs of your head are all numbered. Fear not, therefore; you are of more value than many sparrows.”

Here is what will happen on Tuesday night: God will still reign supreme.

So, yes, God reigned supreme when James Monroe crazily won a nearly unanimous election to the presidency in 1820. And God reigned supreme in 1824 when Andrew Jackson lost the presidency to John Quincy Adams, despite receiving a plurality of the popular and electoral votes, yet failing to win in the U.S. House.

Until Christ returns, every year is tumultuous and all the times are crazy.

So count it all joy to live in these times. We are here in this present age because God wants us here right now. Our job is not to be successful in politics, but to be faithful to Him in all things.

We’re not called to be winners, but to point the world to the One who won our salvation. Our joy must be found not in election victories, but in the saving grace of Jesus.

The most important question is already decided: God reigns supreme.