With the beginning of early voting for the 2016 presidential election only three weeks away, over one million Texans have registered to vote this year.
Derek Ryan, a data consultant for numerous Republican campaigns, reviewed the registration data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office and the data looks good for Republicans.
According to Ryan’s research, new voters are registering to vote at a significantly greater rate in Republican areas rather than Democratic parts of the state. Since the primary elections on March 1st, the average Republican-held congressional district has gained 30,092 new voters compared to Democrat-held districts gaining only 22,595.
While one can never assume a voter will vote a certain way based solely on where they come from, it is likely that a new voter will vote similarly to his next door neighbors and friends.
Ryan’s analysis also bodes bad news for Hillary Clinton.
For years, Democrats have been arguing that Hispanic voters will turn out in droves and turn the state blue. Such was the argument behind Battleground Texas’ colossal effort for the beleaguered Wendy Davis in her bid for governor in 2014. Davis went on to lose by a historic margin, even for Texas Democrats.
Yet despite the facts, Democrats still cling to the fantasy of taking the Lone Star State. In a May interview by New York Magazine’s Rebecca Traister, Clinton was questioned which traditionally red states she might be able to take from Republican nominee Donald Trump:
“Texas!” she exclaimed, eyes wide, as if daring me to question this, which I did. “You are not going to win Texas,” I said. She smiled, undaunted. “If black and Latino voters come out and vote, we could win Texas,” she told me firmly, practically licking her lips.
But unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, upon review of the registration data less than a quarter of new voters have had Hispanic surnames.
Ryan’s full analysis of newly registered voters can be found here.
