A new poll of likely Republican primary voters shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s support continuing to decline ahead of the 2026 Texas GOP primary, with Cornyn now falling into third place in a three-way matchup.
The poll, conducted November 21–22 by Stratus Intelligence, surveyed 857 likely Republican primary voters in Texas. It found Attorney General Ken Paxton leading with 36 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 26 percent, and Cornyn at 25 percent. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided.
Cornyn’s favorability rating has also declined. The survey shows him at 35 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable, with 28 percent of respondents holding a “very unfavorable” view of the incumbent senator.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Paxton leads Cornyn 51 percent to 34 percent, while Hunt leads Cornyn 52 percent to 29 percent. The memo accompanying the poll states that Cornyn has spent more than $40 million on advertising and campaign activity this year but that his numbers have not improved.
The polling also explored President Donald Trump’s potential influence. In a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton still leads 44 percent to 41 percent. By contrast, if Trump endorses Hunt, Hunt leads Paxton 51 percent to 31 percent.
The poll was first released by journalist Ben Jacobs, who attributed it to a pro-Hunt super PAC.
The poll memo concludes that Cornyn’s standing with Republican voters has deteriorated throughout the year, and recent advertising has not reversed the trend. According to Stratus Intelligence, the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
No ads. No paywalls. No government grants. No corporate masters.
Just real news for real Texans.
Support Texas Scorecard to keep it that way!
