As recriminations fly and blame is cast over Tuesday’s election results, the fact is this election was not really about anyone in Texas. Just 90 days ago, Gina Hinojosa did not expect to win the governorship any more than Greg Abbott expected to lose it. This was a national vibe election, driven by the simple question of “affordability” tied to an unpopular war.
You see that in the statewide office results; every “R” lost by roughly the same percentage. There was no nuance; this election was a blunt-force message from the electorate. Politicians of both parties would do well to read it carefully.
President Donald Trump had urged voters to make this election a referendum on his war and his economy. The voters took him at his word and did so.
Texas voters were not endorsing James Talarico’s six-gender theory of LGBTQ theology, nor were they voting to bring Vicki Goodwin’s wacky tax policy ideas into the Office of the Lieutenant Governor. Or consider Ericka Lomick, a Democrat who suspended her own campaign in September because she learned her felony conviction makes her ineligible to hold public office. That fact was widely reported, and she was no longer running. Yet … she won the election against Republican candidate Alan Blaylock.
Democrats did not win on their solutions; Republicans lost on the perceived lack of affordability.
And here is where you find that evidence. If the Texas electorate bought into Democrats’ theory of government, the school tax hikes and bond increases should have been quickly adopted. In any normal election, in fact, it’s a foregone conclusion that school district tax and debt proposals will pass. A loss has always been the exception.
Not on Tuesday. Something like 75 percent of the bond packages and tax hikes lost across the state.
Why? Because “affordability” was on the ballot.
Part of the Republicans’ legacy since taking complete control of Texas government in 2003 has been an inability (or unwillingness) to reduce the property tax burden. Texans tolerated it and shrugged off the inaction because other things (border security, school pedos, job creation, whatever) took precedence. On Tuesday, voters explained very loudly that the GOP’s 2-year-old talking point of “we slowed the rate of increases” was simply not a winning message. Tolerated, until it became intolerable. Shrugged off, until both parties accidentally unified on a message that made affordability and the economy the only question before voters.
Florida’s Tuesday night results offer a fascinating contrast. There, the GOP took a less severe beating than almost anywhere else. Why? Their governor and legislature took decisive action that all but eliminated property taxes for many folks. Promises made on affordability and promises kept.
Over the next two years, Texas Republicans have to figure out how to prove they will fight for the people working on Main Street. During that same period, the Democrats will have to fight against their base’s urge to make Texas an outpost of California.
The voters who enabled the incoming Hinojosa administration are the same voters who told school districts to make do with less.
Democrats coming into office thinking they have a mandate to grow government will have misread the Tuesday night wave as surely as Republicans who think the answer is to adopt libertine policies.
