With the House beginning the impeachment inquiry, it is a good time to overlay the political map regarding those Democratic members who may find themselves in a difficult position as a result of this procedure.
In all, President Trump carried 31 congressional districts that elected a Democratic representative in 2018. In 16 of the 31 CDs, 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney also won. Additionally, the president carried 13 of the 31 districts by more than 6 percentage points.
To impeach, the Democratic leadership would need a minimum of 218 votes, and at the outset, all but one will have to come from the majority side. Republican-turned-Independent Justin Amash (R-MI) left the GOP earlier in the year over the impeachment issue, so he is a likely “yes,” giving the leadership a little more cushion.
Turning back to the 2016 election, Mr. Trump carried Amash’s 3rd Congressional District with a 51.6–42.2 percent victory margin, meaning this would likely be a tough vote for him, too, since he presumably will appear on the ballot as an Independent or minor party candidate.
In the end, however, should a vote proceed to the House floor, 15 of the 31 members listed below will more than likely have to vote for impeachment in order for the motion to carry.
With Mr. Trump being popular in their districts, 10 of the succeeding members with 2020 competition saw the president’s 2016 margin exceed six points; three more with potential, but as yet undeveloped competition, also saw Mr. Trump exceed a base six percentage point margin.
Therefore, one less than half of the following members will need to vote to impeach if the resolution is to move to the Senate.
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