As election day approaches, National Democrat donors are retreating from hotly contested U.S. House seats in South Texas.

Republicans are currently outraising Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley as the competition for congressional districts 15, 28, and 34 comes to a head.

Background

U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) flipped CD 34 earlier this year in a special election. Flores, the wife of a Border Patrol agent, ran on a platform of border security, American exceptionalism, and traditional family values.

Due to redistricting earlier this year, Flores is competing against current CD 15 incumbent Vicente Gonzales as CD 34 now covers the area from Brownsville to just South of Corpus Christi.

Flores has raised $1.6 million compared to Gonzalez’s $497,000 and had more cash-on-hand at the end of the reporting period. In a district that would have gone +15 points for President Joe Biden in 2020, Flores will have a hard fight ahead.

However, polling suggests Hispanics are turning away from the Democrat party as the lack of border security threatens their way of life, and the Biden Administration refuses to acknowledge the problems plaguing the southern border.

Additionally, as the Democrat Party embraces radical gender and race ideologies and insists on force-feeding them to a populace inherently against it, Hispanics are finding alignment with the traditional family values of the Republican party.

Flipping CD 15

In the now-open seat of CD 15, Republican Monica de la Cruz is running on a platform of faith, American exceptionalism, and border security. Her opponent, Democrat Michelle Vallejo, is running on a platform of affordable healthcare, accessible higher education, and a living wage.

Texas Democrats are reportedly frustrated with the CD 15 race in particular, with national donors pulling funding mere weeks before election day, suggesting de la Cruz is poised to flip the seat.

Tight Competition

Meanwhile, in CD 28, Democrat incumbent U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar is being challenged by Republican Cassy Garcia.

Garcia raised over $1.7 million but currently has less than $400,000 cash-on-hand to compete with Cuellar’s $836,000.

Notably, Cuellar is the sole Democrat in the U.S. Congress with any pro-life leanings.

The question in this election is whether Cuellar’s personal beliefs will overcome his constituents’ view of the Democrat Party or if the district will flip.

Outlook

Earlier this year, State Rep. Ryan Guillen (Rio Grande City) left the Democrat Party and joined the Republican Party, citing his pro-life, pro-business beliefs. Guillen was the only Democrat to vote for the Texas Heartbeat Act last year.

As longtime Democrats, like Tulsi Gabbard and Ryan Guillen, leave the Democrat Party, and South Texas Hispanics indicate they are ready for a change, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is predicting a “red wave.”

“We’re going to see … a red wave across the country, but South Texas is going to be profound,” said Cruz. “I think we’re on the verge of a generational shift.”

Sydnie Henry

A born and bred Texan, Sydnie serves as the Capitol Correspondent for Texas Scorecard. A 2021 graduate of Patrick Henry College with a B.A. in Government, Sydnie is utilizing her research and writing skills to spread truth to Texans.

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