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National campaign commentator Jim Ellis on Monday pointed to recent polls showing U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a lead over Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke.

Public Policy Polling for End Citizens United (8/1-2; 797 TX likely voters)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) 46%
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) 42%

Quinnipiac University (7/26-31; 1,118 TX registered voters)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) 49%
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) 43%

At RealClearPolitics, recent polling shows Cruz with a lead ranging from 5 to 10 points. (An outlier is the discredited “Texas Lyceum” poll, which usually favors Democrats and has Cruz only ahead by two.)