The state’s grid operator is projecting a surge in electricity demand over the next decade—driven largely by data centers, crypto mining, and new industrial facilities. The quasi-governmental agency is urging state regulators to pay attention to both the scale of the boom and the uncertainty baked into early projections.
In a filing to the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC), the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) submitted its preliminary Long‑Term Load Forecast for 2026–2032, along with new data on “Large Load” requests from transmission and distribution utilities.
The numbers show potential peak demand in the ERCOT region climbing from today’s record 85,508 MW to about 278,003 MW by 2029, and then 367,790 MW by 2032. The forecast is based on a high‑growth scenario that includes large industrial and data‑center projects.
ERCOT’s forecast includes several layers of demand growth including base economic growth, electric vehicle adoption, customer‑owned solar adoption, crypto load at existing facilities, and ramping of already‑operational large loads.
That baseline alone pushes peak demand into the 100‑110 GW range over the next several years.
On top of that, ERCOT added new “Medium” (25–74.9 MW) and “Large” (75+ MW) loads submitted by transmission and distribution service providers (TDSPs) through a new large load request for information process tied to the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan.
When those medium and large loads are included, ERCOT’s aggregate “Forecast + Large Loads + Medium Loads” bar reaches roughly 278,003 MW by 2029 and 367,790 MW by 2032. That is more than four times the current all‑time peak.
An attachment to ERCOT’s filing breaks out where that new demand is coming from. By load type, the TDSP submissions include:
- Non‑crypto data centers:
- Rising to about 228,420 MW of large data center load by 2032 in the transmission providers’ requests.
- Crypto mining:
- Climbing into the several‑thousand‑MW range, reaching around 9,076 MW by 2032.
- Industrial projects, hydrogen/e‑fuels, and oil & gas (refining, production, processing):
- Adding multiple gigawatts more of large‑load demand across the forecast period.
By transmission provider, the largest concentration of new large loads lands in:
- Oncor – jumping from about 5,018 MW in 2026 to roughly 109,554 MW by 2032 in large‑load submissions.
- AEP, CenterPoint, TNMP, CPS, LCRA, and others also show substantial increases, with each utility reporting thousands to tens of thousands of MW in new large loads over time.
ERCOT also compares 2025 and 2026 data center submissions and shows a dramatic increase in requested capacity, underscoring how quickly large‑load interest has escalated.
Even as ERCOT lays out these eye‑popping totals, it is warning the PUC not to treat the raw high‑end numbers as guaranteed outcomes.
In its letter, ERCOT explicitly tells commissioners it has “concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values” for the 2026 Reliability Assessment and “any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis.”
The reason: many of the large‑load projects submitted by utilities may not materialize on time, at full scale, or at all.
Under a new rule, ERCOT can ask PUC to adjust the forecast if supported by “actual historical realization rates or other objective, credible, independent information.”
“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” said ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected future load growth. We look forward to working with the PUCT on potential adjustments to refine how ERCOT ascertains the most accurate information for load forecasting and ensuring the system reliably and efficiently serves Texans.”
As an example, ERCOT notes:
- The preliminary Long-Term Load Forecast shows ~112,000 MW of peak demand for summer 2026 once all new medium and large loads from the requests for information (RFI) are layered in.
- But ERCOT’s current, more detailed 2026 summer outlook projects peak demand in a range of roughly 90,500 MW to 98,000 MW—still above today’s record, but well below the 112 GW implied by maxing out all new large‑load submissions.
In a “deep dive” on 2026, ERCOT illustrates two scenarios side by side: one bar showing the full build‑out of existing large‑load ramp schedules to about 98,086 MW of peak capacity, and another bar showing a lower, ~90.5 GW outcome if incremental additions don’t arrive as fast.
ERCOT then notes that if you also stack on ~15 GW of new medium and large loads from the 2026 TSP RFI, the theoretical peak would jump to about 112 GW, but ERCOT says it seems unlikely the ramp of existing and new sites will push the peak above 98 GW in that timeframe.
This filing lands in the PUC’s reliability assessment docket, where commissioners and ERCOT are supposed to evaluate whether the ERCOT system can meet the commission’s reliability standard.
What load forecast the PUC chooses to believe will shape:
- How much new generation and transmission the state is told it needs
- How ERCOT models resource adequacy and reliability risks
- How much ratepayers and industry may be asked to spend on infrastructure to keep up
If the high‑end numbers come true, ERCOT will be dealing with a grid that looks nothing like today’s: hundreds of gigawatts of load concentrated in data centers, crypto mines, and energy‑intensive industrial projects. If many of those proposed loads are delayed or never built, over‑reacting to the big headline forecast could mean over‑building transmission and misdirecting investment.
ERCOT isn’t downplaying the potential growth, but highlights both the scale of the build‑out and the risk of using worst‑case assumptions as the basis for official reliability decisions.
To that end, ERCOT says it “would prefer to consult with Commission Staff to evaluate whether it is appropriate to seek adjustment of the forecast” and notes that its staff will be available to brief commissioners at the PUC’s April 17, 2026 open meeting.
How the PUC responds—whether it leans into the upper‑end forecasts or authorizes ERCOT to scale them back using more conservative realization assumptions—will help determine whether Texas gets ahead of this potential wave of demand or spends years fighting over whether it over‑ or under‑built the grid.
