A new statewide poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow lead over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff, while State Sen. Mayes Middleton has opened a wider advantage in the attorney general race and the Railroad Commission contest remains largely undecided.
The survey, conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs among 1,200 likely Republican runoff voters between April 28 and May 1, finds Paxton leading U.S. Sen. John Cornyn 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent still undecided.
The tight margin reflects a runoff electorate that has largely consolidated behind its first-round choices. According to the poll, 95 percent of Paxton’s March primary voters plan to stick with him, while Cornyn retains 91 percent of his supporters.
Voters who backed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt in the first round break toward Paxton by a significant margin, 54 percent to 35 percent despite his refusal to endorse either candidate.
In the Republican runoff for attorney general, Middleton has opened a larger lead over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy. The poll finds Middleton ahead 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
He has also consolidated much of the support from eliminated candidates. Among voters who backed former U.S. Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz in March, 62 percent now support Middleton, compared to 22 percent for Roy.
The Railroad Commission runoff between incumbent Jim Wright and challenger Bo French remains far less defined. Wright leads 35 percent to 28 percent, but a striking 37 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided.
That uncertainty is reflected in low name recognition for both candidates. Roughly half of voters say they do not know enough about either Wright or French to form an opinion.
The poll suggests that down-ballot dynamics may be influenced by the top-of-ticket races. Voters backing Cornyn in the Senate runoff favor Wright by a wide margin, while those supporting Paxton are more likely to back French.
Across all contests, the issues driving Republican runoff voters are consistent. Immigration and border security ranks as the top concern at 33 percent, followed by inflation and the cost of living at 25 percent, and election integrity at 22 percent.
Early Voting runs May 18-22. Election day is May 26.
