A new statewide survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows competitive Republican primaries, a tight U.S. Senate race, and GOP advantages in the 2026 General Election.
In the Republican attorney general primary, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy leads with 33 percent, followed by State Sen. Mayes Middleton at 23 percent. State Sen. Joan Huffman receives 13 percent and Aaron Reitz 6 percent, with 25 percent undecided.
In the GOP comptroller race, former state Sen. Don Huffines leads with 33 percent, ahead of Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick at 21 percent. Interim Comptroller Kelly Hancock—who has been endorsed by Gov. Greg Abbott—received 13 percent, while Michael Berlanga garnered 4 percent. Nearly three in 10 Republican primary voters remain undecided.
Abbott has also endorsed Nate Sheets in the agriculture commissioner race. Despite that, Sheets trails current Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller 48 percent to 18 percent, with 34 percent undecided.
In the railroad commissioner primary, current commissioner Jim Wright (also endorsed by Abbott) and Jim Matlock are virtually tied at 21 percent and 20 percent respectively.
Katherine Culbert, Bo French, and Hawk Dunlap are all in single digits, though 41 percent remain undecided.
The Republican U.S. Senate primary remains on track for a runoff election. Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 38 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn at 31 percent and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
In hypothetical runoffs, Paxton leads both Cornyn (51–40 percent) and Hunt (56–33 percent).
Looking ahead to November, the General Election numbers suggest narrower margins at the federal level than statewide. In six hypothetical Senate matchups, Republican candidates hold leads ranging from just 1 to 4 percentage points over Democratic contenders.
At the state level, Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49 percent to 42 percent in the gubernatorial race, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin 46 percent to 41 percent.
The survey was conducted Jan. 20–31 among likely Republican and Democrat primary voters and likely November 2026 General Election voters.
Early voting in the Primary Election begins February 17. Election Day is March 3.
